Utah's Olympic Dreams: A Climate Change Challenge
The future of winter sports is at stake, and Utah's Olympic aspirations are no exception. Despite a slow start to this year's snow season, Utah remains a potential host for future Winter Games, according to a recent climate change study. But here's where it gets controversial: the study reveals a ticking clock for Utah's climate reliability, and it's not just about snow.
The study, supported by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), paints a picture of a changing world. Co-author Daniel Scott describes Utah as "among the most climate-reliable locations" globally. However, this reliability is not set in stone. By the 2080s, only a handful of locations worldwide are expected to remain consistently cold enough for the Winter Games, and Utah might not be among them.
Despite Governor Spencer Cox's interest in making Utah a permanent Winter Games host, the study suggests otherwise. Only four locations worldwide are predicted to maintain suitable conditions by the 2080s if greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Surprisingly, none of these locations are in North America.
The sole North American site with a reliably cold climate under this scenario? Lake Louise, a ski resort in Canada's Banff National Park. Scott also mentions two high-elevation sites in Europe and one in Japan as potential future hosts.
Could Utah still host the Olympics in the coming decades? Fraser Bullock, president of the Organizing Committee for the 2034 Winter Games, believes it's possible with modifications. He suggests adjusting the Games calendar to start the Paralympics earlier, either by starting the Olympics earlier or reducing the gap between the two events.
But here's the catch: Utah's climate reliability is not guaranteed. Snowbasin Resort and Soldier Hollow Nordic Center, the two Utah venues used in the 2002 Winter Games and expected to host again in 2034, face uncertain futures. While Snowbasin is predicted to remain reliable under low emissions, Soldier Hollow's conditions are marginal in the 2050s and unreliable by the 2080s under high emissions.
The Paralympics present an even bigger challenge. If held in March as usual, Soldier Hollow's conditions are unreliable in both the 2050s and 2080s, according to Scott. Even Snowbasin, under high emissions in the 2080s, becomes unreliable.
The study's update explores the impact of shifting the start dates for the Olympics and Paralympics by about three weeks. Starting the Olympics in January and the Paralympics in February could improve Utah's climate reliability as a Winter Games host beyond 2034. However, Scott suggests replacing Soldier Hollow with a higher-elevation, more climate-reliable venue to strengthen future bids.
Bullock, on the other hand, has contingency plans to bolster Soldier Hollow's snowpack if temperatures rise. Organizers have experience stockpiling snow for venues, as seen in the 2002 Winter Games, when snow was transported from a higher, colder spot near Strawberry Reservoir.
Utah's recent record-high temperatures and the relocation of the freestyle skiing World Cup due to a lack of snow serve as a reminder of the challenges ahead. The international ski federation, FIS, cited "challenging early season weather conditions" and "insufficient snowpack" as reasons for moving the event out of state.
The study also hints at potential future regional or multinational bids, such as Denver partnering with western Canadian venues or Montreal/Quebec joining forces with New Hampshire or Lake Placid. The idea of rotating the Winter Games among a permanent set of hosts, raised by the IOC in 2022, remains a possibility.
Utah's Olympic organizers are "very climate aware," according to Bullock. The 2034 Winter Games are set to start on February 10, but an earlier date was considered and rejected due to climate concerns related to inversions, the layer of polluted air that gets trapped in the valleys along the Wasatch Front.
Organizers of future Utah Winter Games will face a delicate balance between showcasing the state to the world and managing the risk of inversions and high temperatures at the Paralympics.
The future of Utah's Olympic dreams hangs in the balance, and the study's findings highlight the urgent need to address climate change to protect the future of winter sports.
