Zach Eflin's comeback story is more than just a typical player recovery — it highlights the remarkable resilience and potential for renewal in professional baseball. But here's where it gets controversial: not everyone agrees on how impactful Eflin will be in 2024, and some experts might question whether he can truly return to his previous form after battling severe back issues. Still, Eflin's journey from pain-ridden pitcher to a key asset for the Orioles is a fascinating example of perseverance, and it underscores the importance of health and recovery in sports.
Eflin, who achieved a record of 16-8 with a 3.50 earned run average (ERA) and a 1.024 WHIP over 31 starts with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023, finished sixth in the American League Cy Young Award voting, showcasing his talent at his peak. During the 2024 season, spanning 28 starts between Tampa Bay and Baltimore, he posted an overall 3.59 ERA, allowing just 16 runs over 55 and a third innings following his trade at the deadline.
When you take a closer look, it's simply astonishing that Eflin could perform at such a high level while managing intense back pain. The injury eventually disrupted his mechanics: he found himself consistently jumping off his back foot, hesitating to engage his lower body properly during pitches, and dropping his arm angle — all tricks he used to manage the pain that, over time, developed into harmful habits.
This week, Eflin described the pain as ‘someone holding a lighter to the bottom of his back’ — a vivid and, honestly, cringeworthy image that captures just how severe his discomfort was. Thankfully, undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy — a surgical procedure to relieve pressure on the nerve in his lower spine — has opened new doors for his career. Post-surgery, Eflin’s performance is expected to improve considerably, especially considering he’s now free from the constraints that pain imposed.
Looking ahead, his contract is a steal at a guaranteed $10 million, a sum that sounds very reasonable given his potential to rebound. Moreover, if he performs well, Eflin has the chance to return to the open market for a more lucrative deal — enabled, of course, by his back now being successfully repaired.
His current contract includes a mutual option for 2027 worth up to $25 million, with a $2 million buyout. The total value can increase depending on his usage this season — the max being $30 million for the option and a $7 million buyout. Such mutual options are quite rare, and while there’s a chance Eflin could be cut after this season, the arrangement benefits both the player and the Orioles — emphasizing their focus on competing in 2026 while also appreciating the leadership Eflin provides in the clubhouse. As a veteran pitcher, he offers mentorship and stability, guiding younger talent and helping shape the team's culture.
As for where Eflin will slot into the Orioles’ rotation? It’s too soon to tell. We’re still waiting to see if he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though his first bullpen session is scheduled for January 6, and he’s optimistic about being ready. At the same time, the team’s general manager, Mike Elias, might opt to find additional starting pitching through trades or signings, especially if Eflin faces setbacks or isn’t quite ready to go at the start of the season.
If the club makes another move, it will likely be for a top-tier pitcher to anchor the top of the rotation, leaving Eflin and Shane Baz to fill the middle and back spots. Currently, I’d expect the rotation to feature Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Baz, Eflin, and Dean Kremer, in that order. However, if Eflin is fully healthy and shows strong form in spring training, he could leapfrog other pitchers, possibly earning the Opening Day nod — the same role he held last season. Conversely, if Eflin isn’t quite ready and Elias chooses to add another starter, Kremer or Tyler Wells might move up the ranks, depending on how spring unfolds.
In the broader free agent landscape, pitchers like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen, and Tatsuya Imai remain unsigned as we approach New Year’s Day, with Imai’s posting window closing soon. While Eflin's return to the Orioles was somewhat unexpected, it’s a reminder that players sometimes find renewed opportunities with their former teams. Who else might make a similar comeback after a rough patch? The Orioles could benefit from a resurgence from catcher Adley Rutschman, who struggled offensively after his stellar seasons, batting just .207 with a .585 OPS in 2024 after the All-Star break — a significant drop from his previous performance, which included finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and winning a Silver Slugger.
New hitting coaches Dustin Lind and Brady North will work to restore Rutschman’s offensive form, especially if he can stay healthy. Injuries, including oblique strains, hampered his ability to perform consistently, but the organization remains confident in his talent and has reaffirmed his position as the team’s primary catcher. General Manager Elias emphasized during offseason interviews that Rutschman remains their “front-line catcher,” reinforcing their belief in his potential and importance to the team’s future.
Meanwhile, the trade rumor mill continues to speculate about Samuel Basallo being the future backstop, but the organization’s stance is clear: Rutschman is the catcher of tomorrow — for now and beyond.
Regarding Gunnar Henderson, his 2024 numbers tell part of the story, but the full picture shows some decline. He started the season on the injured list with a right intercostal strain and finished with a .274 batting average, .349 on-base percentage, and .438 slugging in 154 games — down from his 2024 performance. His home run count fell from 37 to 17, RBIs dropped from 92 to 68, and his OPS slipped from .893 to .787, along with a decrease in value (bWAR from 9.1 to 5.3). Trades and signings, such as acquiring Taylor Ward and signing Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal, aimed to boost the team’s power, but injuries hampered their impact — O’Neill, for example, played only 54 games with a modest .199/.292/.392 line.
The Orioles broke a long-standing record by having six or more players hit at least 15 home runs, yet failing to produce a single 20-homer hitter, a feat they last achieved in 2001. For 2026, they’ll need O’Neill and Ward to stay healthy and contribute more consistent power to help them contend.
On the pitching side, reliever Yennier Cano’s recent struggles highlight the challenges still ahead. After a strong 2023 season, Cano was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk in June, with his numbers suffering — finishing the year with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.483 WHIP in 65 appearances, with left-handed hitters batting .330 against him. Despite attempts to fix his mechanics late in the season, including a new grip on his changeup, his September outings were still problematic. Cain’s path to regaining consistency remains uncertain, but he has options and will compete for a spot during spring training. The bullpen’s strength is boosted by new closer Ryan Helsley and returning setup man Andrew Kittredge, but the overall depth depends heavily on Cano’s improvement.
In sum, the Orioles are orchestrating a nuanced balance of veteran leadership, strategic signings, and promising young talent. Whether all these pieces fit together perfectly — especially with some controversy surrounding potential moves and unsure starting roles — remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the team is aiming high for 2026, and their willingness to gamble on a comeback story like Eflin’s exemplifies their aggressive, hopeful mindset. Do you agree that such risky rebounds are where true resilience lies, or is this approach too optimistic? Share your thoughts in the comments — after all, baseball is as much about daring moves as it is about consistent results.
